Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Kings TOR @ SAC

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

0-1  |  Road

130
FINAL
Wed, Oct 8 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

0-0  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
RAPTORS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Sacramento)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

37.3%

Kings Cover

62.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

TOR By 1-7 points

21.3%

TOR By 8-14 points

10.3%

SAC By 1-7 points

27.3%

SAC By 8-14 points

20.5%

AI Model Projected Score
111.08
TORONTO
114.33
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
110
TORONTO
115
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.3
D
Sim Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 225.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 SAC @ TOR 123 - 115
Jan 21, 2026 TOR @ SAC 122 - 109
Oct 8, 2025 TOR @ SAC 130 - 122
Nov 6, 2024 TOR @ SAC 107 - 122
Nov 2, 2024 SAC @ TOR 128 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +98.3% more
Sacramento: 3.6 vs Toronto: 1.8
Free Throw % (L5) +15.1%
Sacramento: 84.5% vs Toronto: 69.4%
Turnovers (L5) +10.1% more
Sacramento: 13.9 vs Toronto: 12.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.5%
Sacramento: 39.3% vs Toronto: 30.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 111.1 130
SAC Score 114.3 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.3 / 30.7 30.3 / 54.1
Assists 25.0 / 28.4 25.0 / 32.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.8 11.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 43.9 50.0 / 48.4
Free Throw % 84.5 / 69.4 75.7 / 81.5
Rebounding 43.4 / 42.7 43.0 / 42.0
Steals 5.6 / 12.2 10.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 12.6 19.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
TOR
SAC
TOR
ML
55% 55-45
55% 57-47
61% 50-32
55% 48-39
ATS
54% 52-45-3
61% 62-40-2
61% 50-32
55% 48-39
TTL
58% 57-42-1
60% 62-42
100% 82-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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