Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Phillies LAD @ PHI

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

1-0  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Oct 6 • 6:08 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

0-1  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Roki Sasaki
STARTING PITCHER

Roki Sasaki

#11 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Roki Sasaki None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 --
Jhoan Duran None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
100%
📊
PHILLIES
0%
DODGERS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

55.4%

Phillies Cover

44.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.2%

LAD By 3-4 runs

15.1%

PHI By 1-2 runs

17.4%

PHI By 3-4 runs

12.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6.33
LOS ANGELES
5.79
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
100% Win Prob
A
Sim Phillies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Phillies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 LAD @ PHI 9 - 5
Jul 21, 2026 LAD @ PHI 2 - 1
Jul 20, 2026 LAD @ PHI 7 - 10
May 31, 2026 PHI @ LAD 1 - 9
May 30, 2026 PHI @ LAD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.762 ▲
OPS
.724
204 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.5% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Errors (L5) +57.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.8 vs Philadelphia: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +53.3% more
Los Angeles: 1.7 vs Philadelphia: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +41.2% more
Los Angeles: 16.9 vs Philadelphia: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 6.3 4
PHI Score 5.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.2 / 9.4 7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 12.1 / 12.5 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 16.9 11.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.7 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD Advantage
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
LAD
PHI
LAD
ML
59% 97-67
56% 92-73
49% 80-84
48% 79-87
ATS
65% 107-57
59% 98-67
51% 83-81
43% 72-94
TTL
57% 88-67-9
48% 77-82-6
51% 78-76-9
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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