Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Brewers CHC @ MIL

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

0-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 2:08 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

0-0  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Aaron Civale
STARTING PITCHER

Aaron Civale

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Aaron Ashby
STARTING PITCHER

Aaron Ashby

#26 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aaron Civale None-None 0.00 -- 4.1 3
Aaron Ashby None-None 0.00 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
4.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
50%
📊
BREWERS
50%
CUBS --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Milwaukee)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

49.0%

Brewers Cover

51.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

CHC By 1-2 runs

18.3%

CHC By 3-4 runs

13.3%

MIL By 1-2 runs

18.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.32
CHICAGO
4.42
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 CHC @ MIL 6 - 8
Sep 8, 2026 CHC @ MIL 3 - 4
Sep 7, 2026 CHC @ MIL 3 - 4
Sep 3, 2026 MIL @ CHC 1 - 2
Sep 2, 2026 MIL @ CHC 9 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Milwaukee MIL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.374
OPS
▲ .743
0
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +15400.0% more
Milwaukee: 154.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +464.0% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5) +107.1% more
Milwaukee: 3.5 vs Chicago: 1.7
Errors (L5) +54.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.7 vs Chicago: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 4.3 3
MIL Score 4.4 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.7 / 8.6 13.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.3 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 8.0 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 14.4 17.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.5 / 1.7 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CHC
MIL
CHC
ML
62% 101-61
58% 93-68
52% 84-78
51% 82-79
ATS
58% 94-68
61% 97-63-1
48% 78-84
47% 75-85-1
TTL
40% 62-92-8
52% 81-74-6
50% 77-77-8
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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