ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
0-0 | Road
113
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
0-0 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
ROCKETS
100%
HAWKS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
26.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
16.4%
HOU By 1-7 points
24.6%
HOU By 8-14 points
14.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
112.69
ATLANTA
Houston
112
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Houston
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.7
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
ATL @ HOU
95 - 117
Jan 29, 2026
HOU @ ATL
104 - 86
Oct 16, 2025
HOU @ ATL
133 - 115
Oct 6, 2025
ATL @ HOU
113 - 122
Mar 25, 2025
ATL @ HOU
114 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+33.0% more
Atlanta: 28.8
vs
Houston: 19.3
Steals (L5)
+14.8% more
Atlanta: 9.0
vs
Houston: 7.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.7%
Atlanta: 76.9%
vs
Houston: 71.2%
Blocks (L5)
+47.9% more
Houston: 5.3
vs
Atlanta: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
112.7
113
HOU Score
112.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 33.4
41.2 / 30.6
Assists
19.3 / 28.8
24.0 / 32.0
Blocks
5.3 / 3.6
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 45.6
48.1 / 44.0
Free Throw %
71.2 / 76.9
85.7 / 66.7
Rebounding
46.9 / 44.6
53.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.7 / 9.0
6.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 11.9
21.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATL
HOU
ATL
ML
61%
69-44
50%
52-52
59%
51-35
55%
48-40
ATS
62%
70-43
53%
55-48-1
59%
51-35
55%
48-40
TTL
51%
58-55
53%
55-48-1
100%
86-0
100%
88-0
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