Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Mavericks OKC @ DAL

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

1-0  |  Road

89
FINAL
Mon, Oct 6 • 8:30 PM ET
Dickies Arena
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

0-0  |  Home

106
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
THUNDER --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Dallas)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

47.2%

Mavericks Cover

52.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

OKC By 1-7 points

24.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

14.2%

DAL By 1-7 points

26.0%

DAL By 8-14 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
109.1
OKLAHOMA CITY
109.79
DALLAS
Simulated Score
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.7
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 218.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 OKC @ DAL 100 - 87
Dec 5, 2025 DAL @ OKC 111 - 132
Oct 27, 2025 OKC @ DAL 101 - 94
Oct 6, 2025 OKC @ DAL 89 - 106
Jan 23, 2025 DAL @ OKC 121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +37.5% more
Dallas: 6.9 vs Oklahoma City: 5.0
Assists (L5) +11.7% more
Dallas: 26.0 vs Oklahoma City: 23.3
Turnovers (L5) +8.3% more
Dallas: 15.5 vs Oklahoma City: 14.3
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Dallas: 48.1% vs Oklahoma City: 46.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 109.1 89
DAL Score 109.8 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 34.6 31.4 / 27.5
Assists 26.0 / 23.3 26.0 / 18.0
Blocks 6.9 / 5.0 12.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 46.4 42.0 / 30.9
Free Throw % 76.9 / 78.8 90.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 40.2 / 42.4 58.0 / 43.0
Steals 7.9 / 10.9 5.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 14.3 23.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
OKC
DAL
OKC
ML
62% 63-39
70% 80-34
54% 44-37
48% 46-49
ATS
67% 68-34
73% 83-30-1
54% 44-37
48% 46-49
TTL
59% 60-41-1
67% 76-38
100% 81-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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