DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
0-1 | Road
112
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
0-0 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
RAPTORS
0%
NUGGETS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.6
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.6 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -4.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
DEN By 1-7 points
19.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
8.5%
TOR By 1-7 points
27.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
22.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
109.88
DENVER
Toronto
114.48
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Denver
108
DENVER
Toronto
115
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Raptors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Raptors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.6
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
TOR @ DEN
115 - 121
Dec 31, 2025
DEN @ TOR
106 - 103
Oct 6, 2025
DEN @ TOR
112 - 108
Nov 4, 2024
TOR @ DEN
119 - 121
Oct 28, 2024
DEN @ TOR
127 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+26.1% more
Toronto: 29.6
vs
Denver: 23.5
Steals (L5)
+21.8% more
Toronto: 9.8
vs
Denver: 8.0
Blocks (L5)
+31.8% more
Denver: 3.9
vs
Toronto: 2.7
Turnovers (L5)
+26.4% more
Denver: 17.5
vs
Toronto: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
109.9
112
TOR Score
114.5
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 33.2
23.8 / 37.9
Assists
29.6 / 23.5
26.0 / 22.0
Blocks
2.7 / 3.9
0.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 46.0
41.2 / 56.7
Free Throw %
70.7 / 81.1
66.7 / 71.4
Rebounding
45.1 / 44.7
38.0 / 48.0
Steals
9.8 / 8.0
17.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 17.5
12.0 / 31.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DEN
TOR
DEN
ML
55%
57-47
54%
57-48
55%
48-39
55%
47-39
ATS
61%
62-40-2
63%
65-38-2
55%
48-39
55%
47-39
TTL
60%
62-42
54%
56-48-1
100%
87-0
100%
86-0
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