Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Blue Jays NYY @ TOR

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

0-0  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 4:08 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

0-0  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Paul Blackburn
STARTING PITCHER

Paul Blackburn

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brendon Little
STARTING PITCHER

Brendon Little

#54 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Paul Blackburn None-None 27.00 -- 1.1 --
Brendon Little None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
27.00 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
50%
📊
BLUE JAYS
50%
YANKEES --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 29%
Under 0 71%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Toronto)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

44.1%

Blue Jays Cover

55.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

NYY By 1-2 runs

17.3%

NYY By 3-4 runs

11.8%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.2%

TOR By 3-4 runs

15.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.05
NEW YORK
5.64
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 TOR @ NYY 3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 TOR @ NYY 4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 TOR @ NYY 1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026 NYY @ TOR 4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026 NYY @ TOR 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Toronto TOR
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
1.041 ▲
OPS
.692
2
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +7500.0% more
Toronto: 152.0 vs New York: 2.0
Home Runs (L5) +101.0% more
Toronto: 2.0 vs New York: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +50.5% more
Toronto: 18.5 vs New York: 12.3
Walks (L5) +32.9% more
Toronto: 3.8 vs New York: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.1 1
TOR Score 5.6 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 8.2 14.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.0 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.7 / 10.2 6.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 18.5 / 12.3 26.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.8 / 2.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYY
TOR
NYY
ML
46% 74-87
47% 76-85
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 90-71
59% 95-66
49% 79-81
53% 86-76
TTL
51% 80-76-5
53% 81-73-7
45% 70-85-5
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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