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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

1-1  |  Road

6
FINAL
Thu, Oct 2 • 3:08 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

1-1  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Holton
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Holton

#87 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Holton None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Cade Smith None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
50%
📊
GUARDIANS
50%
TIGERS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 43%
Under 0 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Cleveland)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

33.0%

Guardians Cover

67.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

DET By 1-2 runs

14.3%

DET By 3-4 runs

8.5%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CLE By 3-4 runs

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
2.89
DETROIT
4.65
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim Guardians (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 DET @ CLE 2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026 DET @ CLE 6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026 DET @ CLE 6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026 CLE @ DET 0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026 CLE @ DET 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720 ▲
OPS
.696
181 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +123.0% more
Cleveland: 1.6 vs Detroit: 0.3
Errors (L5) +111.0% more
Cleveland: 1.5 vs Detroit: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +44.4% more
Cleveland: 12.7 vs Detroit: 8.8
Strikeouts (L5) +30.8% more
Cleveland: 11.1 vs Detroit: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 2.9 6
CLE Score 4.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.3 / 7.0 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.1 / 8.5 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 8.8 8.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.3 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
87-79-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
54% 87-75
54% 86-73
49% 80-83
54% 87-73
ATS
57% 93-69
64% 101-58
58% 95-68
57% 91-69
TTL
56% 89-71-2
46% 69-81-9
44% 70-90-2
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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