SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
1-1 | Road
1
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
1-1 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
50%
CUBS
50%
PADRES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
15.4%
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.2%
CHC By 3-4 runs
11.7%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.19
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
4.55
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
CHC @ SD
1 - 4
Sep 29, 2026
CHC @ SD
0 - 8
Jul 1, 2026
SD @ CHC
3 - 23
Jun 30, 2026
SD @ CHC
7 - 9
Jun 29, 2026
SD @ CHC
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Chicago
CHC
2
Games Played
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.925
▲
OPS
.374
4
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+91.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+55.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+41.8%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.0% more
San Diego: 11.1
vs
Chicago: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.2
1
CHC Score
4.6
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.4 / 7.4
13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 11.1
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 12.0
19.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.0 / 2.6
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
SD
CHC
SD
ML
58%
93-68
51%
85-83
51%
82-79
51%
85-82
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
91-77
47%
75-85-1
55%
92-75
TTL
52%
81-74-6
51%
82-80-6
46%
72-83-6
54%
86-74-6
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