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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

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0
FINAL
Thu, Oct 2 • 8:08 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

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4
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 3
David Bednar None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.38
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
50%
📊
YANKEES
50%
RED SOX --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (New York)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

40.6%

Yankees Cover

59.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.4%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.8%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.57
BOSTON
5.52
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
New York NYY
2 ▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.409
OPS
▲ 1.041
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +800.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +79.0% more
New York: 1.5 vs Boston: 0.7
Errors (L5) +35.0% more
New York: 0.6 vs Boston: 0.3
Slugging Pct (Season) +34.4%
New York: 59.4% vs Boston: 25.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.6 0
NYY Score 5.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.3 / 7.3 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 8.7 13.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 11.2 10.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BOS
NYY
BOS
ML
47% 76-85
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 95-66
58% 93-67
53% 86-76
48% 79-84
TTL
53% 81-73-7
46% 72-83-5
53% 82-72-7
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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