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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

0-0  |  Road

135
FINAL
Sun, Oct 5 • 5:00 PM ET
North Charleston Coliseum
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

0-0  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
HORNETS
100%
THUNDER --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 HornetsCHA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

68.2%

Hornets Cover

31.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

27.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

22.7%

CHA By 1-7 points

19.0%

CHA By 8-14 points

8.3%

AI Model Projected Score
106.89
OKLAHOMA CITY
102.16
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
107
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim Hornets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 209.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 5, 2026 CHA @ OKC 124 - 97
Nov 15, 2025 OKC @ CHA 109 - 96
Oct 9, 2025 CHA @ OKC 116 - 122
Oct 5, 2025 OKC @ CHA 135 - 114
Mar 21, 2025 CHA @ OKC 106 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.6% more
Oklahoma City: 6.6 vs Charlotte: 3.6
Steals (L5) +36.3% more
Oklahoma City: 10.9 vs Charlotte: 6.9
Free Throw % (L5) +8.9%
Oklahoma City: 78.8% vs Charlotte: 69.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Oklahoma City: 43.0% vs Charlotte: 41.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 106.9 135
CHA Score 102.2 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 31.4 29.4 / 40.8
Assists 23.4 / 18.4 23.0 / 33.0
Blocks 3.6 / 6.6 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 43.0 39.4 / 53.2
Free Throw % 69.8 / 78.8 83.3 / 78.9
Rebounding 46.1 / 41.6 47.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.9 / 10.9 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 16.7 / 13.4 17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
OKC
CHA
OKC
ML
61% 60-39
70% 80-34
48% 40-44
48% 46-49
ATS
60% 59-40
73% 83-30-1
48% 40-44
48% 46-49
TTL
58% 57-42
67% 76-38
100% 84-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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