ORLANDO
MAGICORL
0-0 | Road
126
MIAMI
HEATMIA
0-0 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
0%
HEAT
100%
MAGIC
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORL -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
ORL By 1-7 points
27.0%
ORL By 8-14 points
18.9%
MIA By 1-7 points
22.7%
MIA By 8-14 points
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
106.42
ORLANDO
Miami
104.19
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Orlando
104
ORLANDO
Miami
108
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Magic (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 210.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
ORL @ MIA
121 - 117
Jan 28, 2026
ORL @ MIA
133 - 124
Dec 9, 2025
MIA @ ORL
108 - 117
Dec 5, 2025
MIA @ ORL
105 - 106
Oct 22, 2025
MIA @ ORL
121 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+25.7% more
Orlando: 6.9
vs
Miami: 5.1
Blocks (L5)
+10.2% more
Orlando: 3.8
vs
Miami: 3.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.4%
Orlando: 70.2%
vs
Miami: 67.8%
Turnovers (L5)
+37.4% more
Miami: 16.1
vs
Orlando: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
106.4
126
MIA Score
104.2
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 26.2
48.3 / 33.3
Assists
22.0 / 20.3
27.0 / 21.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.8
5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 42.0
44.7 / 45.9
Free Throw %
67.8 / 70.2
73.7 / 74.2
Rebounding
40.5 / 41.5
40.0 / 58.0
Steals
5.1 / 6.9
10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 11.7
18.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ORL
MIA
ORL
ML
48%
46-50
61%
65-42
59%
48-34
56%
51-40
ATS
51%
49-47
64%
68-38-1
59%
48-34
56%
51-40
TTL
59%
57-39
57%
61-46
100%
82-0
100%
91-0
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