Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Jaguars KC @ JAX

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

4-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Mon, Oct 6 • 8:15 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

4-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Emmanuel Ogbah
KEY GAME

Emmanuel Ogbah

#50 | Defensive End
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Emmanuel Ogbah None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
CHIEFS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Jacksonville)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

11.2%

Jaguars Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JAX -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

KC By 1-6 points

5.9%

KC By 7-13 points

3.2%

JAX By 1-6 points

10.7%

JAX By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
10
KANSAS CITY
27
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
20
KANSAS CITY
27
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 6, 2025 KC @ JAX 28 - 31
Sep 17, 2023 KC @ JAX 17 - 9
Jan 21, 2023 JAX @ KC 20 - 27
Nov 13, 2022 JAX @ KC 17 - 27
Sep 8, 2019 KC @ JAX 40 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +46.0% more
Jacksonville: 0.9 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.8% more
Jacksonville: 130.3 vs Kansas City: 105.3
First Downs (L5) +10.5% more
Kansas City: 20.5 vs Jacksonville: 18.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +10.1% more
Kansas City: 224.1 vs Jacksonville: 201.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 10.0 28
JAX Score 27.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 20.5 21.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 201.4 / 224.1 210.0 / 318.0
Rushing Yards 130.3 / 105.3 109.0 / 158.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.56
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 331.7 / 329.4 319.0 / 476.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.4 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.2 5.9 / 7.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
KC
JAX
KC
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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