Home / NFL Projections NFL / Vikings @ Browns MIN @ CLE

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

2-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sun, Oct 5 • 9:30 AM ET
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

1-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
@
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
Player
Will Reichard None-None
Corey Bojorquez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
0%
📊
BROWNS
100%
VIKINGS --
BROWNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.4 points (Minnesota)
VikingsMIN (-3.5) 0 BrownsCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

72.5%

Browns Cover

27.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIN -8.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-6 points

16.0%

MIN By 7-13 points

19.6%

CLE By 1-6 points

11.9%

CLE By 7-13 points

8.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23.34
MINNESOTA
14.97
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
20
MINNESOTA
24
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vikings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Browns Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vikings (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.4
D
Sim Browns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2025 MIN @ CLE 21 - 17
Oct 3, 2021 CLE @ MIN 14 - 7
Oct 29, 2017 MIN @ CLE 33 - 16
Sep 22, 2013 CLE @ MIN 31 - 27
Sep 13, 2009 MIN @ CLE 34 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +20.8% more
Minnesota: 5.2 vs Cleveland: 4.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +16.7% more
Minnesota: 214.3 vs Cleveland: 178.5
Total Yards (L5) +16.1% more
Minnesota: 318.6 vs Cleveland: 267.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.0% more
Minnesota: 104.4 vs Cleveland: 88.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 23.3 21
CLE Score 15.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.7 / 19.4 17.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 178.5 / 214.3 182.0 / 252.0
Rushing Yards 88.7 / 104.4 140.0 / 97.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.2 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 267.2 / 318.6 322.0 / 349.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.6 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.1 / 5.2 4.8 / 5.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
CLE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
CLE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIN
CLE
MIN
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
TTL
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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