Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cowboys @ Jets DAL @ NYJ

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

1-2-1  |  Road

37
FINAL
Sun, Oct 5 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

0-4  |  Home

22
Key Game
Quinnen Williams
KEY GAME

Quinnen Williams

#92 | Defensive Tackle
@
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
Player
Quinnen Williams None-None
Austin McNamara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
0%
📊
JETS
100%
COWBOYS --
JETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.4
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.4 points (Dallas)
CowboysDAL (-3.5) 0 JetsNYJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

74.9%

Jets Cover

25.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DAL -9.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-6 points

15.6%

DAL By 7-13 points

19.7%

NYJ By 1-6 points

11.2%

NYJ By 7-13 points

7.7%

AI Model Projected Score
27.06
DALLAS
17.68
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
20
DALLAS
27
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cowboys (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.4
D
Sim Jets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2025 DAL @ NYJ 37 - 22
Sep 17, 2023 NYJ @ DAL 10 - 30
Oct 13, 2019 DAL @ NYJ 22 - 24
Dec 19, 2015 NYJ @ DAL 19 - 16
Sep 11, 2011 DAL @ NYJ 24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +35.0% more
Dallas: 278.2 vs New York: 180.9
Total Yards (L5) +19.7% more
Dallas: 400.9 vs New York: 322.1
First Downs (L5) +17.7% more
Dallas: 24.6 vs New York: 20.2
Turnovers (L5) +42.4% more
New York: 2.0 vs Dallas: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 27.1 37
NYJ Score 17.7 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 24.6 25.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 180.9 / 278.2 234.0 / 236.0
Rushing Yards 141.2 / 122.7 144.0 / 180.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 322.1 / 400.9 378.0 / 416.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.4 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.9 5.2 / 7.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
NYJ
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
DAL
NYJ
DAL
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
67% 2-1-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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