Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Colts LV @ IND

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

1-3  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Oct 5 • 1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

3-1  |  Home

40
Key Game
Segun Olubi
KEY GAME

Segun Olubi

#50 | Linebacker
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Segun Olubi None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
📊
COLTS
0%
RAIDERS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.5
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Indianapolis)
RaidersLV (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

32.1%

Colts Cover

67.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND -6.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

LV By 1-6 points

13.2%

LV By 7-13 points

10.0%

IND By 1-6 points

16.6%

IND By 7-13 points

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
22.28
LAS VEGAS
28.77
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
23
LAS VEGAS
27
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colts Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.5
D
Sim Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2025 LV @ IND 6 - 40
Dec 31, 2023 LV @ IND 20 - 23
Nov 13, 2022 IND @ LV 25 - 20
Jan 2, 2022 LV @ IND 23 - 20
Dec 13, 2020 IND @ LV 44 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +25.9% more
Indianapolis: 248.5 vs Las Vegas: 197.4
First Downs (L5) +22.5% more
Indianapolis: 21.3 vs Las Vegas: 17.4
Total Yards (L5) +15.8% more
Indianapolis: 381.9 vs Las Vegas: 329.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.4% more
Indianapolis: 6.3 vs Las Vegas: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 22.3 6
IND Score 28.8 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 17.4 24.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 248.5 / 197.4 221.0 / 190.0
Rushing Yards 133.4 / 132.3 96.0 / 106.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.8 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 381.9 / 329.7 317.0 / 296.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.1 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.3 / 5.7 5.6 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
IND
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
LV
IND
LV
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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