Home / NFL Projections NFL / Dolphins @ Panthers MIA @ CAR

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

1-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Oct 5 • 1:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

1-3  |  Home

27
Key Game
Riley Patterson
KEY GAME

Riley Patterson

#47 | Place kicker
@
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
Player
Riley Patterson None-None
Sam Martin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
DOLPHINS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Miami)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 PanthersCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

52.0%

Panthers Cover

48.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

16.6%

MIA By 7-13 points

15.9%

CAR By 1-6 points

16.2%

CAR By 7-13 points

14.8%

AI Model Projected Score
19.02
MIAMI
18.32
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
17
MIAMI
27
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dolphins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dolphins (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.7
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2025 MIA @ CAR 24 - 27
Oct 15, 2023 CAR @ MIA 21 - 42
Nov 28, 2021 CAR @ MIA 10 - 33
Nov 13, 2017 MIA @ CAR 21 - 45
Nov 24, 2013 CAR @ MIA 20 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.5% more
Miami: 5.3 vs Carolina: 4.8
Turnovers (L5) +9.7% more
Miami: 1.0 vs Carolina: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 19.0 24
CAR Score 18.3 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 18.2 26.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 190.8 / 191.9 179.0 / 229.0
Rushing Yards 110.2 / 107.2 239.0 / 19.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 301.0 / 299.1 418.0 / 248.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.0 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 5.3 6.4 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
MIA
CAR
MIA
ML
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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