Home / NFL Projections NFL / Buccaneers @ Seahawks TB @ SEA

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

3-1  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sun, Oct 5 • 4:05 PM ET
Lumen Field
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

SEAHAWKSSEA

3-1  |  Home

35
Key Game
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
@
Michael Dickson
KEY GAME

Michael Dickson

#4 | Punter
Player
Riley Dixon None-None
Michael Dickson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
0%
📊
SEAHAWKS
100%
BUCCANEERS --
SEAHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Tampa Bay)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 SeahawksSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

51.9%

Seahawks Cover

48.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TB -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-6 points

16.6%

TB By 7-13 points

15.9%

SEA By 1-6 points

16.2%

SEA By 7-13 points

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
25.69
TAMPA BAY
25.04
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
20
TAMPA BAY
24
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seahawks Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.7
D
Sim Seahawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2025 TB @ SEA 38 - 35
Nov 13, 2022 SEA @ TB 16 - 21
Nov 3, 2019 TB @ SEA 34 - 40
Nov 27, 2016 SEA @ TB 5 - 14
Nov 3, 2013 TB @ SEA 24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.0% more
Seattle: 1.2 vs Tampa Bay: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 25.7 38
SEA Score 25.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 20.0 27.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 223.8 / 231.8 341.0 / 370.0
Rushing Yards 118.0 / 126.9 122.0 / 56.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 341.8 / 358.7 463.0 / 426.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.5 8.6 / 7.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
SEA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
SEA Advantage
1-1-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
SEA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TB
SEA
TB
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
50% 1-1-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 1-1-2
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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