Home / NFL Projections NFL / Commanders @ Chargers WSH @ LAC

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

2-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Oct 5 • 4:25 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

3-1  |  Home

10
Key Game
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
Tress Way None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
100%
📊
CHARGERS
0%
COMMANDERS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.2 points (Los Angeles)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

30.3%

Chargers Cover

69.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAC -7.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

WSH By 1-6 points

12.7%

WSH By 7-13 points

9.4%

LAC By 1-6 points

16.4%

LAC By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
18.76
WASHINGTON
25.98
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
20
WASHINGTON
27
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chargers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chargers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.2
D
Sim Chargers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2025 WSH @ LAC 27 - 10
Sep 12, 2021 LAC @ WSH 20 - 16
Dec 10, 2017 WSH @ LAC 13 - 30
Nov 3, 2013 LAC @ WSH 24 - 30
Jan 3, 2010 WSH @ LAC 20 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +67.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.6 vs Washington: 0.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +24.7% more
Los Angeles: 236.3 vs Washington: 189.6
First Downs (L5) +9.8% more
Los Angeles: 20.6 vs Washington: 18.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.4 vs Washington: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 18.8 27
LAC Score 26.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 18.7 18.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 236.3 / 189.6 181.0 / 226.0
Rushing Yards 113.9 / 148.6 155.0 / 163.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.56 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 350.2 / 338.2 336.0 / 389.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.8 5.2 / 7.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
WSH
LAC
WSH
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
75% 3-1
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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