Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Bengals DET @ CIN

DETROIT

LIONSDET

3-1  |  Road

37
FINAL
Sun, Oct 5 • 4:25 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

2-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
@
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
Player
Jack Fox None-None
Ryan Rehkow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
BENGALS
100%
LIONS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.6 points (Detroit)
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 BengalsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

62.9%

Bengals Cover

37.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DET -4.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-6 points

16.9%

DET By 7-13 points

18.4%

CIN By 1-6 points

14.4%

CIN By 7-13 points

11.6%

AI Model Projected Score
22.06
DETROIT
17.44
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
24
DETROIT
27
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.6
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2025 DET @ CIN 37 - 24
Oct 17, 2021 CIN @ DET 34 - 11
Dec 24, 2017 DET @ CIN 17 - 26
Oct 20, 2013 CIN @ DET 27 - 24
Dec 6, 2009 DET @ CIN 13 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +60.4% more
Detroit: 149.6 vs Cincinnati: 59.3
Total Yards (L5) +38.7% more
Detroit: 378.1 vs Cincinnati: 231.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +32.3% more
Detroit: 6.1 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
First Downs (L5) +28.6% more
Detroit: 21.3 vs Cincinnati: 15.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 22.1 37
CIN Score 17.4 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.2 / 21.3 21.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 172.6 / 228.4 237.0 / 247.0
Rushing Yards 59.3 / 149.6 85.0 / 118.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 231.9 / 378.1 322.0 / 365.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.9 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.1 / 6.1 5.6 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
CIN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
DET
CIN
DET
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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