Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Bills NE @ BUF

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

2-2  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Oct 5 • 8:20 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

4-0  |  Home

20
Key Game
Mitch Wishnowsky
KEY GAME

Mitch Wishnowsky

#19 | Punter
@
Joe Andreessen
KEY GAME

Joe Andreessen

#44 | Linebacker
Player
Mitch Wishnowsky None-None
Joe Andreessen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
100%
📊
BILLS
0%
PATRIOTS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Buffalo)
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

36.1%

Bills Cover

63.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

NE By 1-6 points

14.2%

NE By 7-13 points

11.3%

BUF By 1-6 points

16.9%

BUF By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23.92
NEW ENGLAND
28.89
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
13
NEW ENGLAND
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bills Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bills Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bills (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Bills (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 NE @ BUF 29 - 26
Dec 14, 2025 BUF @ NE 35 - 31
Oct 5, 2025 NE @ BUF 23 - 20
Jan 5, 2025 BUF @ NE 16 - 23
Dec 22, 2024 NE @ BUF 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +55.1% more
Buffalo: 164.0 vs New England: 105.7
First Downs (L5) +17.9% more
Buffalo: 22.6 vs New England: 19.2
Total Yards (L5) +16.1% more
Buffalo: 378.1 vs New England: 325.7
Turnovers (L5) +76.5% more
New England: 1.5 vs Buffalo: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 23.9 23
BUF Score 28.9 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 19.2 25.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 214.1 / 220.0 245.0 / 267.0
Rushing Yards 164.0 / 105.7 118.0 / 71.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 378.1 / 325.7 363.0 / 338.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.5 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 5.7 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
NE
BUF
NE
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Garrett Wilson's Accountability Shines Amid Jets' 1-3 Start, But…
si 1 hour, 3 minutes ago
DeMarvion Overshown Pays Tribute to Jake Ehlinger with Custom Je…
si 1 hour, 10 minutes ago
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 1 hour, 10 minutes ago
Archie Manning's Enduring Influence: How the Patriarch Shaped Ar…
dallasnews 1 hour, 14 minutes ago
Steelers' Michael Pittman Jr. Sidelined Multiple Weeks with Foot…
newsweek 7 hours, 5 minutes ago