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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

0-0  |  Road

103
FINAL
Fri, Oct 3 • 10:00 PM ET
Acrisure Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

0-0  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
SUNS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Los Angeles)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

45.0%

Lakers Cover

55.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

PHX By 1-7 points

24.0%

PHX By 8-14 points

13.3%

LAL By 1-7 points

26.4%

LAL By 8-14 points

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
106.07
PHOENIX
107.32
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
112
PHOENIX
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 213.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 PHX @ LAL 73 - 101
Feb 26, 2026 LAL @ PHX 110 - 113
Dec 23, 2025 LAL @ PHX 108 - 132
Dec 14, 2025 LAL @ PHX 116 - 114
Dec 1, 2025 PHX @ LAL 125 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +13.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.5 vs Phoenix: 3.9
Turnovers (L5) +11.1% more
Los Angeles: 14.9 vs Phoenix: 13.4
Free Throw % (L5) +7.7%
Los Angeles: 79.7% vs Phoenix: 72.0%
Steals (L5) +31.5% more
Phoenix: 8.3 vs Los Angeles: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 106.1 103
LAL Score 107.3 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 34.0 17.1 / 31.7
Assists 22.6 / 26.8 10.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.9 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 46.2 31.1 / 42.2
Free Throw % 79.7 / 72.0 78.4 / 53.8
Rebounding 39.1 / 41.0 46.0 / 50.0
Steals 5.7 / 8.3 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 13.4 22.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
PHX
LAL
PHX
ML
61% 68-43
57% 60-45
54% 49-42
51% 45-43
ATS
61% 67-43-1
58% 59-43-3
54% 49-42
51% 45-43
TTL
61% 66-43-2
59% 61-42-2
100% 91-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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