SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
0-1 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
1-0 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Colin Rea
#53 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.2 | 5 |
| Colin Rea | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
0%
CUBS
100%
PADRES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
18.5%
SD By 3-4 runs
13.7%
CHC By 1-2 runs
18.4%
CHC By 3-4 runs
13.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.88
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
4.84
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: 0.0
C
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
CHC @ SD
1 - 4
Sep 29, 2026
CHC @ SD
0 - 8
Jul 1, 2026
SD @ CHC
3 - 23
Jun 30, 2026
SD @ CHC
7 - 9
Jun 29, 2026
SD @ CHC
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Chicago
CHC
2
Games Played
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.925
▲
OPS
.374
4
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+91.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+55.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Walks (L5)
+54.6% more
San Diego: 3.4
vs
Chicago: 1.5
Slugging Pct (Season)
+41.8%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.9
3
CHC Score
4.8
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.6
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 11.1
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 12.6
5.0 / 11.0
Walks
1.5 / 3.4
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
SD
CHC
SD
ML
58%
93-68
51%
85-83
51%
82-79
51%
85-82
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
91-77
47%
75-85-1
55%
92-75
TTL
52%
81-74-6
51%
82-80-6
46%
72-83-6
54%
86-74-6
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