BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
1-0 | Road
3
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
0-1 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Payton Tolle
#70 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| David Bednar | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
5.40
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
YANKEES
0%
RED SOX
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.4%
BOS By 3-4 runs
13.5%
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.5%
NYY By 3-4 runs
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
5.1
BOSTON
New York
5.14
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: 0.0
C
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.409
OPS
▲
1.041
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+800.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+117.0% more
New York: 1.7
vs
Boston: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+72.0% more
New York: 4.1
vs
Boston: 2.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+34.4%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Boston: 25.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
5.1
3
NYY Score
5.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.9
10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 10.6
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 12.4
14.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.4
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BOS
NYY
BOS
ML
47%
76-85
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
47%
76-87
ATS
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
53%
86-76
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
81-73-7
46%
72-83-5
53%
82-72-7
47%
74-83-6
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