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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

0-1  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Oct 1 • 9:08 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

1-0  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Chase Burns
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Burns

#26 | Starting Pitcher
@
Roki Sasaki
STARTING PITCHER

Roki Sasaki

#11 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chase Burns None-None 0.00 -- 1.2 1
Roki Sasaki None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
0%
📊
DODGERS
100%
REDS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Los Angeles)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

24.0%

Dodgers Cover

76.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

CIN By 1-2 runs

11.1%

CIN By 3-4 runs

5.8%

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.48
CINCINNATI
6.31
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
100% Win Prob
A
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.8
D
Sim Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 LAD @ CIN 8 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 LAD @ CIN 2 - 6
Sep 15, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 0
Sep 14, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 1
Sep 9, 2026 CIN @ LAD 1 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.699
OPS
▲ .762
213 ▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +225.0% more
Los Angeles: 3.1 vs Cincinnati: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +84.5% more
Los Angeles: 21.0 vs Cincinnati: 11.4
Hits (L5) +37.2% more
Los Angeles: 10.2 vs Cincinnati: 7.5
Runs per Game (Season) +20.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 3.5 4
LAD Score 6.3 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.6 3.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.2 / 7.5 13.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 3.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 12.7 / 10.7 13.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 21.0 / 11.4 19.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.5 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
CIN
LAD
CIN
ML
56% 92-73
55% 88-71
48% 79-87
49% 79-81
ATS
59% 98-67
54% 86-73
43% 72-94
50% 80-80
TTL
48% 77-82-6
53% 81-73-5
44% 70-90-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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