Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Cubs SD @ CHC

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

0-0  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Sep 30 • 3:08 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

0-0  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Wandy Peralta None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 1
Matthew Boyd None-None 2.08 -- 4.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 2.08
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
50%
📊
CUBS
50%
PADRES --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Chicago)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

43.3%

Cubs Cover

56.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

SD By 1-2 runs

17.1%

SD By 3-4 runs

11.6%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.3%

CHC By 3-4 runs

15.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.65
SAN DIEGO
5.33
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 CHC @ SD 1 - 4
Sep 29, 2026 CHC @ SD 0 - 8
Jul 1, 2026 SD @ CHC 3 - 23
Jun 30, 2026 SD @ CHC 7 - 9
Jun 29, 2026 SD @ CHC 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Chicago CHC
2
Games Played
2
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.925 ▲
OPS
.374
4 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +48.4% more
Chicago: 2.3 vs San Diego: 1.6
Total Bases (L5) +9.8% more
Chicago: 17.4 vs San Diego: 15.9
Runs per Game (Season) +91.7% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5) +60.6% more
San Diego: 4.6 vs Chicago: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.7 1
CHC Score 5.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 9.3 6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 1.6 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.4 / 10.2 6.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 17.4 / 15.9 12.0 / 6.0
Walks 1.8 / 4.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
SD
CHC
SD
ML
58% 93-68
51% 85-83
51% 82-79
51% 85-82
ATS
61% 97-63-1
54% 91-77
47% 75-85-1
55% 92-75
TTL
52% 81-74-6
51% 82-80-6
46% 72-83-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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