BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
0-0 | Road
3
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
0-0 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Tim Hill | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
50%
YANKEES
50%
RED SOX
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.0%
BOS By 3-4 runs
12.9%
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.8%
NYY By 3-4 runs
14.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
5.05
BOSTON
New York
5.27
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.409
OPS
▲
1.041
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+800.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+126.0% more
New York: 2.1
vs
Boston: 0.9
Slugging Pct (Season)
+34.4%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Boston: 25.0%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+28.8%
New York: 44.7%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
5.1
3
NYY Score
5.3
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.8
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 9.4
8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 13.0
10.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.6
6.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BOS
NYY
BOS
ML
47%
76-85
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
47%
76-87
ATS
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
53%
86-76
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
81-73-7
46%
72-83-5
53%
82-72-7
47%
74-83-6
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