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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

0-0  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Sep 30 • 9:08 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

0-0  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Hunter Greene
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Greene

#21 | SP
@
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hunter Greene None-None 15.00 -- 3.0 4
Jack Dreyer None-None 0.00 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
15.00 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
3.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
50%
📊
DODGERS
50%
REDS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Los Angeles)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

27.5%

Dodgers Cover

72.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

CIN By 1-2 runs

12.4%

CIN By 3-4 runs

6.8%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.56
CINCINNATI
5.95
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
CINCINNATI
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 LAD @ CIN 8 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 LAD @ CIN 2 - 6
Sep 15, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 0
Sep 14, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 1
Sep 9, 2026 CIN @ LAD 1 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.699
OPS
▲ .762
213 ▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +71.1% more
Los Angeles: 2.1 vs Cincinnati: 1.2
Strikeouts (L5) +29.4% more
Los Angeles: 13.0 vs Cincinnati: 10.1
Total Bases (L5) +27.5% more
Los Angeles: 16.0 vs Cincinnati: 12.6
Runs per Game (Season) +20.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 3.6 5
LAD Score 6.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.8 / 7.7 15.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 1.2 5.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 13.0 / 10.1 12.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 16.0 / 12.6 31.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.7 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
CIN
LAD
CIN
ML
56% 92-73
55% 88-71
48% 79-87
49% 79-81
ATS
59% 98-67
54% 86-73
43% 72-94
50% 80-80
TTL
48% 77-82-6
53% 81-73-5
44% 70-90-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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