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DALLAS

STARSDAL

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5
FINAL
Tue, Sep 30 • 8:00 PM ET
Enterprise Center
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ST. LOUIS

BLUESSTL

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3
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
📊
BLUES
0%
STARS --
BLUES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (St. Louis)
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 BluesSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

46.8%

Blues Cover

53.2%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around STL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

DAL By 1 goal

16.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

17.0%

STL By 1 goal

18.1%

STL By 2-3 goals

20.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2.52
DALLAS
2.68
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
2
DALLAS
3
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blues Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blues Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blues (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim Blues (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 STL @ DAL 4 - 0
Feb 4, 2026 STL @ DAL 4 - 5
Jan 27, 2026 DAL @ STL 4 - 3
Jan 23, 2026 STL @ DAL 2 - 3
Oct 18, 2025 DAL @ STL 1 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +48.0% more
St. Louis: 20.0 vs Dallas: 13.5
Power Play % (L5) +27.1%
Dallas: 34.0% vs St. Louis: 6.9%
Takeaways (L5) +19.4% more
Dallas: 2.1 vs St. Louis: 1.7
Faceoff % (L5) +1.8%
Dallas: 53.5% vs St. Louis: 51.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 2.5 5
STL Score 2.7 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
DAL
STL
DAL
ML
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
50% 1-1-1
100% 3-0
50% 1-1-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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