Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Iowa State @ Cincinnati ISU @ CIN

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

5-0  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 12:00 PM ET
Nippert Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

3-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Aiden Flora
KEY GAME

Aiden Flora

#21 | Running Back
@
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
Player
Aiden Flora None-None
Max Fletcher None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA STATE
100%
📊
CINCINNATI
0%
IOWA STATE --
CINCINNATI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
28.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cincinnati)
Iowa StateISU (-3.5) 0 CincinnatiCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Iowa State Cover

44.3%

Cincinnati Cover

55.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

ISU By 1-6 points

15.7%

ISU By 7-13 points

13.8%

CIN By 1-6 points

16.9%

CIN By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
13
IOWA STATE
15
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
23
IOWA STATE
27
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cincinnati Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Cincinnati Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cincinnati (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
C
Sim Cincinnati (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 28.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 ISU @ CIN 30 - 38
Nov 16, 2024 CIN @ ISU 17 - 34
Oct 14, 2023 ISU @ CIN 30 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.7% more
Cincinnati: 200.8 vs Iowa State: 143.7
Total Yards (L5) +28.0% more
Cincinnati: 502.4 vs Iowa State: 392.6
First Downs (L5) +19.9% more
Cincinnati: 23.9 vs Iowa State: 19.9
Turnovers (L5) +27.0% more
Iowa State: 1.0 vs Cincinnati: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 13.0 30
CIN Score 15.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.9 / 19.9 20.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 200.8 / 143.7 260.0 / 156.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 502.4 / 392.6 474.0 / 470.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
CIN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
CIN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.1
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ISU
CIN
ISU
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2-1
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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