ARMY
ARMYARMY
1-3 | Road
31
UAB
UABUAB
2-2 | Home
13
Key Game
KEY GAME
Dawson Jones
#95 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Jonah Delange
#39 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Dawson Jones | None-None |
| Jonah Delange | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARMY
0%
UAB
100%
ARMY
--
UAB
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
73.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-59.0
ARMY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +59.0 points (Army)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARMY -59.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARMY)
ARMY By 1-6 points
0.0%
ARMY By 7-13 points
0.0%
UAB By 1-6 points
0.0%
UAB By 7-13 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Army
66
ARMY
UAB
7
UAB
Simulated Score
Army
24
ARMY
UAB
27
UAB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Army
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
UAB
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Army (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -59.0
C
Sim
UAB (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 73.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 4, 2025
ARMY @ UAB
31 - 13
Oct 12, 2024
UAB @ ARMY
10 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+67.4% more
Army: 279.6
vs
UAB: 91.3
Total Yards (L5)
+16.4% more
UAB: 417.5
vs
Army: 358.8
First Downs (L5)
+15.0% more
UAB: 22.0
vs
Army: 19.2
Turnovers (L5)
+9.0% more
UAB: 1.7
vs
Army: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARMY Score
66.0
31
UAB Score
7.0
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
22.0 / 19.2
16.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards
91.3 / 279.6
103.0 / 247.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.3
0.43 / 0.38
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards
417.5 / 358.8
362.0 / 295.0
Turnovers
1.7 / 1.6
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARMY
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 13.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
UAB
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARMY
1-2-1
(33.3%)
Margin: 13.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
UAB
Advantage
2-2-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ARMY
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +5.0
UAB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
ARMY
UAB
ARMY
ML
80%
4-1
100%
4-0
100%
5-0
75%
3-1
ATS
50%
2-2-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1-1
50%
2-2
TTL
40%
2-3
50%
2-2
60%
3-2
50%
2-2
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