Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oklahoma St @ Arizona OKST @ ARIZ

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

1-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 3:00 PM ET
Arizona Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

3-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
LaDainian Fields
KEY GAME

LaDainian Fields

#9 | Cornerback
@
Michael Salgado-Medina
KEY GAME

Michael Salgado-Medina

#19 | Place kicker
Player
LaDainian Fields None-None
Michael Salgado-Medina None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OKLAHOMA ST
100%
📊
ARIZONA
0%
OKLAHOMA ST --
ARIZONA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Arizona)
Oklahoma StOKST (-3.5) 0 ArizonaARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oklahoma St Cover

15.9%

Arizona Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARIZ -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

OKST By 1-6 points

7.9%

OKST By 7-13 points

4.7%

ARIZ By 1-6 points

12.9%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
56
OKLAHOMA STATE
70
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
28
OKLAHOMA STATE
31
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arizona Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arizona Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Arizona (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 OKST @ ARIZ 13 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +52.0% more
Arizona: 1.4 vs Oklahoma State: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKST Score 56.0 13
ARIZ Score 70.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 19.9 28.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 142.7 / 149.4 45.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.42
Total Yards 385.0 / 369.3 478.0 / 158.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.8 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKST
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
ARIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKST Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
ARIZ
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
OKST
ARIZ
OKST
ML
100% 5-0
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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