Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Syracuse @ SMU SYR @ SMU

SYRACUSE

SYRACUSESYR

3-2  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 3:30 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
View Odds Details →

SMU

SMUSMU

2-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Fran Brown Jr.
KEY GAME

Fran Brown Jr.

#21 | Long Snapper
@
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
Player
Fran Brown Jr. None-None
Wade McSparron None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SYRACUSE
100%
📊
SMU
0%
SYRACUSE --
SMU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (SMU)
SyracuseSYR (-3.5) 0 SMUSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Syracuse Cover

1.1%

SMU Cover

98.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SMU -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

SYR By 1-6 points

0.7%

SYR By 7-13 points

0.2%

SMU By 1-6 points

2.2%

SMU By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
7
SYRACUSE
39
SMU
Simulated Score
24
SYRACUSE
28
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI SMU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim SMU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI SMU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Sim SMU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 SYR @ SMU 18 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.7% more
SMU: 2.0 vs Syracuse: 1.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.1% more
SMU: 129.2 vs Syracuse: 114.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SYR Score 7.0 18
SMU Score 39.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 23.8 21.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 129.2 / 114.2 76.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 410.0 / 431.2 370.0 / 389.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.7 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SYR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
SMU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SYR
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
SMU
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SYR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.8
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
SYR
SMU
SYR
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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