Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Michigan @ Buffalo EMU @ BUFF

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

1-4  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 3:30 PM ET
UB Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

2-3  |  Home

31
Key Game
Rudy Kessinger
KEY GAME

Rudy Kessinger

#46 | Place kicker
@
Keontez Bradley
KEY GAME

Keontez Bradley

#9 | Cornerback
Player
Rudy Kessinger None-None
Keontez Bradley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
E MICHIGAN
0%
📊
BUFFALO
100%
E MICHIGAN --
BUFFALO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Eastern Michigan)
E MichiganEMU (-3.5) 0 BuffaloBUFF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Michigan Cover

97.7%

Buffalo Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around EMU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EMU)

EMU By 1-6 points

3.8%

EMU By 7-13 points

8.8%

BUFF By 1-6 points

1.4%

BUFF By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
EASTERN MICHIGAN
11
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
24
EASTERN MICHIGAN
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI E Michigan Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Buffalo Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI E Michigan (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Buffalo (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 EMU @ BUFF 30 - 31
Nov 20, 2024 BUFF @ EMU 37 - 20
Nov 21, 2023 EMU @ BUFF 24 - 11
Sep 24, 2022 BUFF @ EMU 50 - 31
Nov 2, 2019 BUFF @ EMU 43 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.6% more
Eastern Michigan: 1.0 vs Buffalo: 0.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Eastern Michigan: 0.4 vs Buffalo: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.0% more
Buffalo: 182.6 vs Eastern Michigan: 141.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EMU Score 39.0 30
BUFF Score 11.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 19.5 21.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 182.6 / 141.6 115.0 / 227.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 351.3 / 362.7 387.0 / 395.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
BUFF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
BUFF
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
EMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUFF
EMU
BUFF
EMU
ML
100% 5-0
67% 4-2
100% 5-0
50% 3-3
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
33% 2-4
TTL
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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