CENTRAL MICHIGAN
C MICHIGANCMU
3-2 | Road
22
AKRON
AKRONAKR
1-4 | Home
28
Key Game
KEY GAME
Declan Duley
#18 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Joseph Castle
#95 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Declan Duley | None-None |
| Joseph Castle | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
C MICHIGAN
0%
AKRON
100%
C MICHIGAN
--
AKRON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Central Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CMU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)
CMU By 1-6 points
3.8%
CMU By 7-13 points
8.8%
AKR By 1-6 points
1.4%
AKR By 7-13 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Central Michigan
39
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Akron
11
AKRON
Simulated Score
Central Michigan
24
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Akron
27
AKRON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
C Michigan
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Akron
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
C Michigan (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim
Akron (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
AKR @ CMU
17 - 41
Oct 4, 2025
CMU @ AKR
22 - 28
Oct 14, 2023
AKR @ CMU
10 - 17
Oct 15, 2022
CMU @ AKR
28 - 21
Sep 14, 2019
AKR @ CMU
24 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+33.2% more
Central Michigan: 203.2
vs
Akron: 135.7
Turnovers (L5)
+20.9% more
Central Michigan: 1.1
vs
Akron: 0.9
Total Yards (L5)
+14.9% more
Central Michigan: 359.8
vs
Akron: 306.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CMU Score
39.0
22
AKR Score
11.0
28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
17.4 / 18.5
20.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards
135.7 / 203.2
162.0 / 238.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.4
0.6 / 0.33
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards
306.4 / 359.8
417.0 / 374.0
Turnovers
0.9 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMU
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -7.8
ATS +/-: -1.8
AKR
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -14.6
ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMU
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -7.8
ATS +/-: -1.8
AKR
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -14.6
ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.3
AKR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AKR
CMU
AKR
CMU
ML
100%
5-0
100%
5-0
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
ATS
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
20%
1-4
20%
1-4
TTL
80%
4-1
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
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