Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas @ Florida TEX @ FLA

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

3-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 3:30 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

1-3  |  Home

29
Key Game
Alex January
KEY GAME

Alex January

#97 | Defensive Lineman
@
Jeramiah McCloud
KEY GAME

Jeramiah McCloud

#91 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Alex January None-None
Jeramiah McCloud None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS
100%
📊
FLORIDA
0%
TEXAS --
FLORIDA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Florida)
TexasTEX (-3.5) 0 FloridaFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Cover

23.8%

Florida Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FLA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

TEX By 1-6 points

10.7%

TEX By 7-13 points

7.3%

FLA By 1-6 points

15.3%

FLA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
17
TEXAS
27
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
20
TEXAS
31
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Florida Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Florida (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Florida (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 TEX @ FLA 21 - 29
Nov 9, 2024 FLA @ TEX 17 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +60.0% more
Florida: 1.5 vs Texas: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.2% more
Texas: 200.8 vs Florida: 122.1
Total Yards (L5) +33.2% more
Texas: 458.9 vs Florida: 306.7
First Downs (L5) +23.2% more
Texas: 22.2 vs Florida: 17.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 17.0 21
FLA Score 27.0 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.0 / 22.2 22.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 122.1 / 200.8 159.0 / 52.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 306.7 / 458.9 457.0 / 341.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.9 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
FLA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
FLA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
TEX
FLA
TEX
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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