Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Penn State @ UCLA PSU @ UCLA

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

3-1  |  Road

37
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 3:30 PM ET
Rose Bowl
View Odds Details →

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

0-4  |  Home

42
Key Game
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
@
Mateen Bhaghani
KEY GAME

Mateen Bhaghani

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Ryan Barker None-None
Mateen Bhaghani None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PENN STATE
0%
📊
UCLA
100%
PENN STATE --
UCLA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Penn State)
Penn StatePSU (-3.5) 0 UCLAUCLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penn State Cover

74.0%

UCLA Cover

26.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PSU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

PSU By 1-6 points

15.7%

PSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

UCLA By 1-6 points

11.5%

UCLA By 7-13 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
18
PENN STATE
9
UCLA
Simulated Score
24
PENN STATE
27
UCLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penn State Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UCLA Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penn State (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim UCLA (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 27.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 PSU @ UCLA 37 - 42
Oct 5, 2024 UCLA @ PSU 11 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.6% more
Penn State: 185.0 vs UCLA: 121.0
First Downs (L5) +11.2% more
Penn State: 20.8 vs UCLA: 18.5
Total Yards (L5) +11.2% more
Penn State: 374.7 vs UCLA: 332.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 18.0 37
UCLA Score 9.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 20.8 22.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 121.0 / 185.0 269.0 / 157.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.65 / 0.34
Total Yards 332.9 / 374.7 435.0 / 357.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
UCLA
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
PSU
UCLA
PSU
ML
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-3-1
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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