Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Michigan St @ Nebraska MSU @ NEB

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

3-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 4:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
View Odds Details →

NEBRASKA

NEBRASKANEB

3-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Anelu Lafaele
KEY GAME

Anelu Lafaele

#11 | EDGE
@
Kyle Cunanan
KEY GAME

Kyle Cunanan

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Anelu Lafaele None-None
Kyle Cunanan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN ST
100%
📊
NEBRASKA
0%
MICHIGAN ST --
NEBRASKA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
NEBRASKA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Nebraska)
Michigan StMSU (-3.5) 0 NebraskaNEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Michigan St Cover

14.2%

Nebraska Cover

85.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NEB -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEB)

MSU By 1-6 points

7.2%

MSU By 7-13 points

4.1%

NEB By 1-6 points

12.2%

NEB By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23
MICHIGAN STATE
38
NEBRASKA
Simulated Score
24
MICHIGAN STATE
27
NEBRASKA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nebraska Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Nebraska Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nebraska (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
C
Sim Nebraska (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 NEB @ MSU 31 - 13
Oct 4, 2025 MSU @ NEB 27 - 38
Nov 4, 2023 NEB @ MSU 17 - 20
Sep 25, 2021 NEB @ MSU 20 - 23
Nov 17, 2018 MSU @ NEB 6 - 9
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +26.8% more
Nebraska: 453.6 vs Michigan State: 357.7
First Downs (L5) +25.6% more
Nebraska: 25.5 vs Michigan State: 20.3
Turnovers (L5) +11.0% more
Nebraska: 0.8 vs Michigan State: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 23.0 27
NEB Score 38.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.5 / 20.3 15.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 129.4 / 135.9 67.0 / 84.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 453.6 / 357.7 261.0 / 240.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.7 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
NEB Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
NEB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
NEB
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
MSU
NEB
MSU
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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