Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / FAU @ Rice FAU @ RICE

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

1-3  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Rice Stadium
View Odds Details →

RICE

RICERICE

3-2  |  Home

21
Key Game
Josh Roberts
KEY GAME

Josh Roberts

#10 | Defensive Back
@
Enock Gota
KEY GAME

Enock Gota

#28 | Place kicker
Player
Josh Roberts None-None
Enock Gota None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FAU
0%
📊
RICE
100%
FAU --
RICE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
FAUFAU (-3.5) 0 RiceRICE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FAU Cover

94.2%

Rice Cover

5.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FAU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)

FAU By 1-6 points

7.2%

FAU By 7-13 points

13.8%

RICE By 1-6 points

3.3%

RICE By 7-13 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
33
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
11
RICE
Simulated Score
24
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
27
RICE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI FAU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Rice Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI FAU (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
C
Sim Rice (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 FAU @ RICE 27 - 21
Nov 25, 2023 FAU @ RICE 21 - 24
Oct 15, 2022 RICE @ FAU 14 - 17
Nov 5, 2016 FAU @ RICE 42 - 25
Oct 10, 2015 RICE @ FAU 27 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +76.2% more
Florida Atlantic: 1.9 vs Rice: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +29.8% more
Florida Atlantic: 451.9 vs Rice: 317.2
First Downs (L5) +22.0% more
Florida Atlantic: 22.8 vs Rice: 17.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.9% more
Rice: 194.0 vs Florida Atlantic: 140.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAU Score 33.0 27
RICE Score 11.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 22.8 18.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 194.0 / 140.7 213.0 / 103.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 317.2 / 451.9 350.0 / 393.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.9 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
RICE
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
RICE
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.3
RICE
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
FAU
RICE
FAU
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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