Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UNLV @ Wyoming UNLV @ WYO

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

4-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 7:00 PM ET
War Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

WYOMING

WYOMINGWYO

2-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Kayden McGee
KEY GAME

Kayden McGee

#6 | Wide Receiver
@
Bart Edmiston
KEY GAME

Bart Edmiston

#18 | Punter
Player
Kayden McGee None-None
Bart Edmiston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UNLV
100%
📊
WYOMING
0%
UNLV --
WYOMING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
1.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WYOMING
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Wyoming)
UNLVUNLV (-3.5) 0 WyomingWYO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UNLV Cover

47.2%

Wyoming Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WYO -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WYO)

UNLV By 1-6 points

16.1%

UNLV By 7-13 points

14.6%

WYO By 1-6 points

16.7%

WYO By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
0
UNLV
1
WYOMING
Simulated Score
24
UNLV
27
WYOMING
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wyoming Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Wyoming Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wyoming (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim Wyoming (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 UNLV @ WYO 31 - 17
Nov 10, 2023 WYO @ UNLV 14 - 34
Nov 27, 2020 WYO @ UNLV 45 - 14
Sep 28, 2019 UNLV @ WYO 17 - 53
Nov 12, 2016 WYO @ UNLV 66 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.1% more
UNLV: 202.0 vs Wyoming: 155.3
Total Yards (L5) +23.0% more
UNLV: 435.0 vs Wyoming: 334.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
UNLV: 0.5 vs Wyoming: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +17.5% more
UNLV: 23.4 vs Wyoming: 19.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 0.0 31
WYO Score 1.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 23.4 21.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 155.3 / 202.0 102.0 / 153.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 334.7 / 435.0 356.0 / 255.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.0 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
WYO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
WYO
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
WYO
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WYO
UNLV
WYO
UNLV
ML
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
ATS
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
TTL
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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