COLORADO
COLORADOCOLO
2-3 | Road
21
TCU
TCUTCU
3-1 | Home
35
Key Game
KEY GAME
Damon Greaves
#35 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Nate McCashland
#99 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Damon Greaves | None-None |
| Nate McCashland | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLORADO
100%
TCU
0%
COLORADO
--
TCU
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
63.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (TCU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TCU -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)
COLO By 1-6 points
0.3%
COLO By 7-13 points
0.1%
TCU By 1-6 points
1.0%
TCU By 7-13 points
3.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
13
COLORADO
TCU
50
TCU
Simulated Score
Colorado
20
COLORADO
TCU
31
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
TCU
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
TCU
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
TCU (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
C
Sim
TCU (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 63.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 4, 2025
COLO @ TCU
21 - 35
Sep 2, 2023
COLO @ TCU
45 - 42
Sep 2, 2022
TCU @ COLO
38 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+65.0% more
TCU: 1.7
vs
Colorado: 1.0
Total Yards (L5)
+14.9% more
TCU: 408.6
vs
Colorado: 355.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+14.0% more
TCU: 0.5
vs
Colorado: 0.4
First Downs (L5)
+12.2% more
TCU: 20.8
vs
Colorado: 18.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COLO Score
13.0
21
TCU Score
50.0
35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
20.8 / 18.6
23.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards
103.1 / 141.8
94.0 / 126.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.4
0.47 / 0.64
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards
408.6 / 355.6
369.0 / 343.0
Turnovers
1.7 / 1.0
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLO
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -6.8
ATS +/-: -8.2
TCU
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 12.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLO
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -6.8
ATS +/-: -8.2
TCU
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 12.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
COLO
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -8.7
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -12.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
COLO
TCU
COLO
ML
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
ATS
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
TTL
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
20%
1-4
0%
0-5
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