Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Mississippi St @ Texas A&M MSST @ TA&M

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

4-1  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 7:30 PM ET
Kyle Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

4-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
@
Noah Mikhail
KEY GAME

Noah Mikhail

#0 | Linebacker
Player
Ethan Pulliam None-None
Noah Mikhail None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSISSIPPI ST
100%
📊
TEXAS A&M
0%
MISSISSIPPI ST --
TEXAS A&M --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Texas A&M)
Mississippi StMSST (-3.5) 0 Texas A&MTA&M (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mississippi St Cover

4.3%

Texas A&M Cover

95.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TA&M -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

MSST By 1-6 points

2.5%

MSST By 7-13 points

1.1%

TA&M By 1-6 points

5.9%

TA&M By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
15
MISSISSIPPI STATE
39
TEXAS A&M
Simulated Score
24
MISSISSIPPI STATE
27
TEXAS A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas A&M Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Sim Texas A&M (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 MSST @ TA&M 9 - 31
Oct 19, 2024 TA&M @ MSST 34 - 24
Nov 11, 2023 MSST @ TA&M 10 - 51
Oct 1, 2022 TA&M @ MSST 24 - 42
Oct 2, 2021 MSST @ TA&M 26 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +8.2% more
Texas A&M: 447.4 vs Mississippi State: 413.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.1% more
Mississippi State: 209.3 vs Texas A&M: 173.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Mississippi State: 0.4 vs Texas A&M: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +8.8% more
Mississippi State: 1.1 vs Texas A&M: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 15.0 9
TA&M Score 39.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 21.7 23.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 173.5 / 209.3 299.0 / 77.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.1
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 447.4 / 413.4 479.0 / 219.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
TA&M
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
TA&M
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
TA&M
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TA&M
MSST
TA&M
MSST
ML
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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