Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulsa @ Memphis TLSA @ MEM

TULSA

TULSATLSA

2-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

5-0  |  Home

45
Key Game
Hudson Ball
KEY GAME

Hudson Ball

#32 | Defensive Lineman
@
Tylon Nash
KEY GAME

Tylon Nash

#41 | Linebacker
Player
Hudson Ball None-None
Tylon Nash None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULSA
100%
📊
MEMPHIS
0%
TULSA --
MEMPHIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Memphis)
TulsaTLSA (-3.5) 0 MemphisMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulsa Cover

1.6%

Memphis Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MEM -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

TLSA By 1-6 points

1.0%

TLSA By 7-13 points

0.4%

MEM By 1-6 points

2.9%

MEM By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
TULSA
46
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
24
TULSA
31
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Memphis Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Memphis Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Memphis (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
C
Sim Memphis (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 TLSA @ MEM 7 - 45
Nov 10, 2022 TLSA @ MEM 10 - 26
Oct 9, 2021 MEM @ TLSA 29 - 35
Oct 26, 2019 MEM @ TLSA 42 - 41
Nov 10, 2018 TLSA @ MEM 21 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +77.0% more
Memphis: 256.6 vs Tulsa: 145.0
Total Yards (L5) +23.5% more
Memphis: 465.7 vs Tulsa: 377.1
First Downs (L5) +18.7% more
Memphis: 23.8 vs Tulsa: 20.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Memphis: 0.5 vs Tulsa: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 16.0 7
MEM Score 46.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 20.0 28.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 256.6 / 145.0 191.0 / 71.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards 465.7 / 377.1 457.0 / 246.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.9 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
MEM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
MEM
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.7
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
TLSA
MEM
TLSA
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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