Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nevada @ Fresno St NEV @ FRES

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

1-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 10:30 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium
View Odds Details →

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

4-1  |  Home

20
Key Game
Joe McFadden
KEY GAME

Joe McFadden

#84 | Place kicker
@
Jordan Malau'ulu
KEY GAME

Jordan Malau'ulu

#10 | Wide Receiver
Player
Joe McFadden None-None
Jordan Malau'ulu None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEVADA
0%
📊
FRESNO ST
100%
NEVADA --
FRESNO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Nevada)
NevadaNEV (-3.5) 0 Fresno StFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nevada Cover

64.0%

Fresno St Cover

36.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NEV -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

NEV By 1-6 points

16.9%

NEV By 7-13 points

18.5%

FRES By 1-6 points

14.2%

FRES By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
NEVADA
11
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
20
NEVADA
31
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nevada Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Fresno St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nevada (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Sim Fresno St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 27.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 NEV @ FRES 17 - 20
Oct 18, 2024 FRES @ NEV 24 - 21
Sep 30, 2023 NEV @ FRES 9 - 27
Nov 19, 2022 FRES @ NEV 41 - 14
Oct 23, 2021 NEV @ FRES 32 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.4% more
Nevada: 2.4 vs Fresno State: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.6% more
Nevada: 182.1 vs Fresno State: 151.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +20.0% more
Fresno State: 0.5 vs Nevada: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEV Score 16.0 17
FRES Score 11.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 19.5 16.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 151.9 / 182.1 152.0 / 129.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.23 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 367.1 / 358.6 342.0 / 246.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.4 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
NEV
FRES
NEV
ML
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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