Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Charlotte @ South Florida CLT @ USF

CHARLOTTE

CHARLOTTECLT

1-3  |  Road

26
FINAL
Fri, Oct 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

3-1  |  Home

54
Key Game
Bronson Long
KEY GAME

Bronson Long

#95 | Punter
@
Nico Gramatica
KEY GAME

Nico Gramatica

#7 | Place kicker
Player
Bronson Long None-None
Nico Gramatica None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARLOTTE
100%
📊
SOUTH FLORIDA
0%
CHARLOTTE --
SOUTH FLORIDA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
67.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (South Florida)
CharlotteCLT (-3.5) 0 South FloridaUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Charlotte Cover

8.7%

South Florida Cover

91.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USF -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

CLT By 1-6 points

4.8%

CLT By 7-13 points

2.4%

USF By 1-6 points

9.3%

USF By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
24
CHARLOTTE
43
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
24
CHARLOTTE
27
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim South Florida Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
B
Sim South Florida (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 67.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2025 CLT @ USF 26 - 54
Nov 16, 2024 USF @ CLT 59 - 24
Nov 25, 2023 CLT @ USF 14 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +58.0% more
South Florida: 154.8 vs Charlotte: 98.0
Total Yards (L5) +14.3% more
South Florida: 420.9 vs Charlotte: 368.2
Turnovers (L5) +40.3% more
Charlotte: 1.8 vs South Florida: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +15.6% more
Charlotte: 21.8 vs South Florida: 18.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLT Score 24.0 26
USF Score 43.0 54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 21.8 36.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 154.8 / 98.0 407.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 420.9 / 368.2 631.0 / 279.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.8 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLT
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
USF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLT
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
USF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +5.3
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
CLT
USF
CLT
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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