Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico @ San José St UNM @ SJSU

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

3-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Fri, Oct 3 • 10:00 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

1-3  |  Home

35
Key Game
Jalen McIver
KEY GAME

Jalen McIver

#94 | Defensive Tackle
@
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
Player
Jalen McIver None-None
Trent Carrizosa None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO
100%
📊
SAN JOSÉ ST
0%
NEW MEXICO --
SAN JOSÉ ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
84.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (San José State)
New MexicoUNM (-3.5) 0 San José StSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico Cover

33.4%

San José St Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SJSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

UNM By 1-6 points

13.5%

UNM By 7-13 points

10.4%

SJSU By 1-6 points

16.7%

SJSU By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
39
NEW MEXICO
45
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
17
NEW MEXICO
31
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI San José St Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim San José St Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI San José St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Sim San José St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 84.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2025 UNM @ SJSU 28 - 35
Oct 14, 2023 SJSU @ UNM 52 - 24
Oct 31, 2020 UNM @ SJSU 21 - 38
Oct 4, 2019 UNM @ SJSU 21 - 32
Oct 1, 2016 SJSU @ UNM 41 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.8% more
New Mexico: 208.2 vs San José State: 100.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 39.0 28
SJSU Score 45.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 23.1 24.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 100.4 / 208.2 153.0 / 76.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 424.7 / 439.2 480.0 / 420.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.8 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
SJSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
SJSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
SJSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
UNM
SJSU
UNM
ML
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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