Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Colorado St @ San Diego St CSU @ SDSU

COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

1-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Fri, Oct 3 • 10:30 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

3-1  |  Home

45
Key Game
Alton Tarber IV
KEY GAME

Alton Tarber IV

#94 | Defensive Lineman
@
Amari Comier
KEY GAME

Amari Comier

#91 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Alton Tarber IV None-None
Amari Comier None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLORADO ST
100%
📊
SAN DIEGO ST
0%
COLORADO ST --
SAN DIEGO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (San Diego State)
Colorado StCSU (-3.5) 0 San Diego StSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colorado St Cover

1.3%

San Diego St Cover

98.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SDSU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

CSU By 1-6 points

0.9%

CSU By 7-13 points

0.3%

SDSU By 1-6 points

2.5%

SDSU By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7
COLORADO STATE
38
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
17
COLORADO STATE
27
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI San Diego St Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim San Diego St Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI San Diego St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
B
Sim San Diego St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2025 CSU @ SDSU 24 - 45
Nov 11, 2023 SDSU @ CSU 19 - 22
Dec 5, 2020 CSU @ SDSU 17 - 29
Oct 5, 2019 SDSU @ CSU 24 - 10
Nov 26, 2016 CSU @ SDSU 63 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +50.6% more
Colorado State: 1.6 vs San Diego State: 0.8
Total Yards (L5) +16.7% more
Colorado State: 367.9 vs San Diego State: 306.5
First Downs (L5) +14.3% more
Colorado State: 20.6 vs San Diego State: 17.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSU Score 7.0 24
SDSU Score 38.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 20.6 24.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 141.6 / 152.6 281.0 / 149.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 306.5 / 367.9 540.0 / 355.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
SDSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
SDSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +20.5
SDSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
CSU
SDSU
CSU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Oregon State Offers MMR Boosters as San Diego State Battles Mump…
yahoo 2 days, 5 hours ago
Brandon Graham's Cryptic Take on Lane Johnson's Absence Raises E…
yahoo 3 days, 18 hours ago
Boise State Rolls Past Utah State 37-18 in First Pac-12 Clash fo…
abcnews 4 days, 17 hours ago
Week 5 College Football: Alabama-Mississippi State Headlines Pla…
cbssports 1 week ago
UCF Reveals Mission X Uniforms for 10th Annual Space Game
yahoo 1 week, 1 day ago