Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / West Virginia @ BYU WVU @ BYU

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

2-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Fri, Oct 3 • 10:30 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

BYU

BYUBYU

4-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
Keyshawn Robinson
KEY GAME

Keyshawn Robinson

#20 | Cornerback
@
Therrian Alexander III
KEY GAME

Therrian Alexander III

#1 | Cornerback
Player
Keyshawn Robinson None-None
Therrian Alexander III None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WEST VIRGINIA
100%
📊
BYU
0%
WEST VIRGINIA --
BYU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
BYU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (BYU)
West VirginiaWVU (-3.5) 0 BYUBYU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

West Virginia Cover

0.3%

BYU Cover

99.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BYU -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)

WVU By 1-6 points

0.2%

WVU By 7-13 points

0.1%

BYU By 1-6 points

0.9%

BYU By 7-13 points

2.8%

AI Model Projected Score
9
WEST VIRGINIA
47
BYU
Simulated Score
27
WEST VIRGINIA
31
BYU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI BYU Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim BYU Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI BYU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
B
Sim BYU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2025 WVU @ BYU 24 - 38
Nov 4, 2023 BYU @ WVU 7 - 37
Sep 24, 2016 BYU @ WVU 32 - 35
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +23.8% more
BYU: 23.4 vs West Virginia: 18.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
BYU: 0.4 vs West Virginia: 0.3
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
BYU: 0.6 vs West Virginia: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +56.8% more
West Virginia: 1.3 vs BYU: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 9.0 24
BYU Score 47.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 18.9 23.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 209.9 / 211.2 165.0 / 156.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 403.7 / 374.7 516.0 / 291.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.3 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
BYU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
BYU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.9
BYU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
WVU
BYU
WVU
ML
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
ATS
67% 2-1
25% 1-3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3-1
TTL
0% 0-3
50% 2-2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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