Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Sam Houston @ New Mexico St SHSU @ NMSU

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

0-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Thu, Oct 2 • 9:00 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

2-2  |  Home

37
Key Game
Tyler Bailey
KEY GAME

Tyler Bailey

#8 | Safety
@
TJ Pride
KEY GAME

TJ Pride

#7 | Wide Receiver
Player
Tyler Bailey None-None
TJ Pride None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAM HOUSTON
0%
📊
NEW MEXICO ST
100%
SAM HOUSTON --
NEW MEXICO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Sam Houston)
Sam HoustonSHSU (-3.5) 0 New Mexico StNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sam Houston Cover

99.1%

New Mexico St Cover

0.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SHSU -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

SHSU By 1-6 points

1.9%

SHSU By 7-13 points

5.3%

NMSU By 1-6 points

0.6%

NMSU By 7-13 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
42
SAM HOUSTON
9
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
24
SAM HOUSTON
27
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Sam Houston Loss
0% Win Prob
A
Sim New Mexico St Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Sam Houston (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
A
Sim New Mexico St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2025 SHSU @ NMSU 10 - 37
Sep 21, 2024 NMSU @ SHSU 11 - 31
Oct 11, 2023 SHSU @ NMSU 13 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.7% more
Sam Houston: 89.9 vs New Mexico State: 61.4
Turnovers (L5) +64.0% more
New Mexico State: 1.6 vs Sam Houston: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +36.1% more
New Mexico State: 322.9 vs Sam Houston: 237.2
First Downs (L5) +22.5% more
New Mexico State: 17.4 vs Sam Houston: 14.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 42.0 10
NMSU Score 9.0 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 14.2 20.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 61.4 / 89.9 95.0 / 69.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.69 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 322.9 / 237.2 350.0 / 313.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.0 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
NMSU Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
NMSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
SHSU
NMSU
SHSU
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
83% 5-1
100% 4-0
ATS
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
67% 4-2
25% 1-3
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
50% 3-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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