PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
0-0-0 | Road
2
DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
0-0-0 | Home
1
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
RED WINGS
100%
PENGUINS
--
RED WINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1 goal
19.5%
PIT By 2-3 goals
26.4%
DET By 1 goal
13.9%
DET By 2-3 goals
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.38
PITTSBURGH
Detroit
2.68
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wings
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Penguins (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim
Red Wings (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 31, 2026
DET @ PIT
1 - 5
Jan 3, 2026
PIT @ DET
4 - 1
Jan 1, 2026
DET @ PIT
3 - 4
Sep 29, 2025
PIT @ DET
2 - 1
Sep 26, 2025
DET @ PIT
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+19.9%
Pittsburgh: 42.8%
vs
Detroit: 23.0%
Takeaways (L5)
+13.8% more
Pittsburgh: 2.9
vs
Detroit: 2.5
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.0%
Pittsburgh: 51.1%
vs
Detroit: 43.1%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+54.5% more
Detroit: 15.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.4
2
DET Score
2.7
1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PIT
DET
PIT
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
0%
0-3
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
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